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OXFORD — Yes, it might be logical to assume Kentucky would win comfortably against Ole Miss if you're looking at the game on paper.
The Wildcats are 6-2, 3-2 in the SEC, and sit in third place in the East Division. Meanwhile, the Rebels are 3-5 and in last place in the SEC West with a 1-4 conference record.
But what do the stats say about Ole Miss' matchup with Kentucky Saturday (3 p.m., SEC Network) at Kroger Field in Lexington?
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SB Nation's Bill Connelly's S&P+ ratings view the Rebels in higher regard than the Wildcats. Ole Miss is ranked 70th in those ratings, while Kentucky is 83rd.
The ratings are determined mainly by the five factors - efficiency, explosiveness, field position, finishing drives and turnovers - believed to determine most football games.
Ole Miss' win probability is 51 percent according to those ratings, which project a slim Rebels victory. Part of that might have to do with the efficiency of Ole Miss' passing attack, which the ratings hold in high regard, and Kentucky's passing defense, which has struggled this season.
The S&P+ ratings are more advanced, but the Wildcats' struggles are clear even in more traditional stats. Kentucky ranks last in the SEC in pass defense and gives up an average of 266.6 yards per game.
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Ole Miss isn't a great team by any stretch of the imagination, but it at least has something to hang its hat on - explosiveness - while the S&P+ ratings show Kentucky doesn't do anything really well.
With a run defense that ranks 127th nationally, the Rebels will have to worry about Kentucky running back Benny Snell Jr., who is third in the SEC with 721 rushing yards. Ole Miss' run defense is bad enough that it could possibly just cancel out its other advantages.
Which is why this game figures to be close. Vegas has pegged the Wildcats as a 3.5-point favorite for the game.
Another reason why it may be close: Kentucky hasn't proven it can pull away from teams. Its largest margin of victory is this season is 11 points and that's with a schedule that's included: Southern Miss, Eastern Kentucky, Eastern Michigan, Missouri and Tennessee.
So it's not exactly like the Wildcats have gone through a gauntlet of one tough game after another. Ole Miss looked like it it was going to blow out Arkansas last week when it sprinted out to a 24-point first-half lead before it self destructed and lost 38-37.
While S&P+ favors the Rebels, ESPN's Football Power Index (FPI) is a less favorable to Ole Miss, which it gives a 38.5 percent chance of winning Saturday.